Marx L, Gsell MAF, Rund A, Caforio F, Prassl AJ, Toth-Gayor G, Kuehne T, Augustin CM, Plank G.Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2020 Jun 12;378(2173):20190342. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0342. Epub 2020 May 25.PMID: 32448067
Computer models of left ventricular (LV) electro-mechanics (EM) show promise as a tool for assessing the impact of increased afterload upon LV performance. However, the identification of unique afterload model parameters and the personalization of EM LV models remains challenging due to significant clinical input uncertainties. Here, we personalized a virtual cohort of N = 17 EM LV models under pressure overload conditions. A global-local optimizer was developed to uniquely identify parameters of a three-element Windkessel (Wk3) afterload model. The sensitivity of Wk3 parameters to input uncertainty and of the EM LV model to Wk3 parameter uncertainty was analysed. The optimizer uniquely identified Wk3 parameters, and outputs of the personalized EM LV models showed close agreement with clinical data in all cases. Sensitivity analysis revealed a strong dependence of Wk3 parameters on input uncertainty. However, this had limited impact on outputs of EM LV models. A unique identification of Wk3 parameters from clinical data appears feasible, but it is sensitive to input uncertainty, thus depending on accurate invasive measurements. By contrast, the EM LV model outputs were less sensitive, with errors of less than 8.14% for input data errors of 10%, which is within the bounds of clinical data uncertainty. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation’.